Electioneering Complex and Battle for Osun: Case of Tinubu, APC, Others Versus Gov Adeleke

Politics in Nigeria and in other democracies, including the United States, is not about permanent enmity. It is about opportunity, structure and conscience. The Osun State governorship election of August 2026 has again demonstrated this reality.

In every democracy, political parties are designed as vehicles, not as families. They are built to carry ambition from one point to the next, and when the road changes, politicians change vehicles. This is not new.

From Chief Obafemi Awolowo's movement from the Action Group in the First Republic to the Unity Party of Nigeria in the Second Republic, and later to the Social Democratic Party and Alliance for Democracy in the 1990s, the progressive bloc in South-West Nigeria has rebranded at least five times while retaining the same core. In the United States, the pattern is similar. The Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln is not the Republican Party of 1980. Leaders such as Ronald Reagan, who was once a Democrat, and Donald Trump, who has been registered as Republican, Reform, Democrat and Independent, moved as their business interests, location and ambition required.

In each instance, an astute politician studies the time, the nature, the agitation and the passions of his age and capitalises on them.

Political science does not have a single name for this approach. It is described by four overlapping concepts, best summarised as pragmatic populism or Zeitgeist politics.

First is Machiavellian Realpolitik or pragmatism. Niccolo Machiavelli in The Prince argued that a successful ruler does not govern by rigid ideology but studies the times, the nature of men and necessity, and adapts. In modern political science this is called Realpolitik, politics based on reality and opportunity, not moral doctrine.

Second is populism and Panem et Circenses. When a politician studies the cultural anchors of the people, including music, dance, religion, festivals, socialisation and open-door philanthropy, and uses them to connect, scholars describe it as cultural populism or sociological populism. The Romans called it Panem et Circenses, bread and circuses. Adeleke dancing, Tinubu's cap-lowering gesture, Trump's religious-wrestling-style rallies and MKO Abiola's open-door philanthropy are clear examples.

Third is Zeitgeist politics. German scholars define Zeitgeist as the spirit of the age. A skilled politician reads the dominant agitation of the time. In the 1990s, the agitation was against military rule, and the Alliance for Democracy leveraged Afenifere and NADECO sentiments. In 2015, the agitation was against corruption and insecurity, and the All Progressives Congress leveraged the message of change. In Osun between 2022 and 2026, the agitation centred on workers' welfare, youth energy and accessible governance, which Governor Ademola Adeleke leveraged.

Fourth is Antonio Gramsci's theory of cultural hegemony. Karl Marx described religion as the opium of the people. Gramsci expanded the argument to include music, film and social customs as tools of hegemony. A successful politician does not fight the culture; he appropriates it.

Together, these concepts explain what is known in Nigerian local politics as grassroots or stomach infrastructure politics, the understanding that citizens do not consume ideology but relevance.

What confuses ordinary voters is that these vehicles are treated as identities. Party logos are turned into articles of faith, and neighbours are pitted against one another for politicians who will reconcile tomorrow in Abuja, Washington, in business deals or behind the scenes. World history of politics and Nigeria's, in particular, shows that today's bitter opponents are tomorrow's coalition partners. The Peoples Democratic Party that ruled from 1999 to 2015 was itself a coalition of conservatives, progressives and the northern establishment. The APC that defeated it in 2015 was a merger of four opposition parties, including the Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change, All Nigeria Peoples Party and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, led by men who were PDP governors, ministers and speakers a year earlier. Enmity is not permanent; interest is.

The Osun State governorship election of 15 August 2026 brought this lesson into sharp focus. An incumbent governor left the party that brought him to power in 2022, contested under the Accord Party, a party that faced deregistration in the middle of the campaign, and defeated the candidate of the ruling federal party.

A. Nigeria's Cases of Party as Vehicle

The trajectory of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is well documented. He was elected Senator for Lagos West under the Social Democratic Party from 1992 to 1993; Governor of Lagos State under the Alliance for Democracy from 1999 to 2007; a founding leader of the Action Congress in 2006; a leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria from 2010 to 2013; and a founding leader of the All Progressives Congress from 2013 to date. The progression is SDP to AD to AC to ACN to APC.

This is not an exception but a pattern. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar moved from PDP to Action Congress in 2007, returned to PDP in 2009, moved to APC in 2014 and returned to PDP in 2017. Former Governors Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso and former Senate President Bukola Saraki left PDP for APC in 2013 to 2014 and returned to PDP in 2018. The late Isiaka Adeleke, first civilian governor of Osun in 1992 under SDP, later served as Senator under PDP and defected to APC in 2017. His political family has survived across parties.

B. The United States and Similar Logic

The American system is stricter, but movement is evident. Donald Trump was registered as Republican from 1987 to 1999, 2009 to 2011 and 2012 to present; as a member of the Reform Party and its New York affiliate the Independence Party from 1999 to 2001; as a Democrat from 2001 to 2009; and as Independent from 2011 to 2012. He registered as Republican in Manhattan in 1987, explored the Reform Party in 1999, registered as Democrat in August 2001, returned to Republican in September 2009, changed to no party affiliation in December 2011 and returned to Republican in April 2012.

C. Osun 2026 as the Test Case

The 2026 Osun governorship election provides empirical basis for this analysis. The election was held on 15 August 2026.

What makes it historically unique is as follows. The defection: Governor Ademola Adeleke left the PDP on 6 November 2025 citing national leadership crisis after extensive consultations and was cleared as sole candidate of the Accord Party. The primary: 150 delegates, five from each of 30 local government areas, affirmed him with 145 valid votes. The vacancy: according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, PDP did not present a candidate. Its factional aspirant, Adedamola Adebayo, withdrew three days to the election and endorsed Adeleke. The opponents: APC presented Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority. The African Democratic Congress presented former Speaker Najeem Salam. The legal battle: a Federal High Court deregistered Accord and four other parties mid-campaign. Adeleke rejected the judgment as abuse of court process, noting that the Court of Appeal had stayed proceedings.

The result: on Sunday, 16 August 2026, INEC Returning Officer Prof. Joshua Ogunwole declared Adeleke winner at 7:24 a.m. Adeleke polled 511,067 votes in 19 local government areas; Oyebamiji polled 444,815 votes in 11 local government areas; ADC polled 17,180 votes. This is the first time since 1999 that an incumbent governor in Osun has won re-election on a third-tier party after leaving the two major parties.

How Grassroots Politics Helped as Decisive Factor

Adeleke's victory is a textbook case of grassroots or stomach infrastructure politics defeating federal structure politics. The term was popularised by former Ekiti Governor Ayo Fayose in 2014 and refers to direct welfare impacts over abstract ideology.

First, salary as campaign. Osun's deepest political wound since 2014 was half salaries and unpaid pensions. Adeleke made full payment of salaries on or before the 26th of each month his administrative identity from 2022, cleared pension arrears and paid cooperative deductions. In a civil service state, this is stomach infrastructure.

Second, bread and dance. Adeleke turned governance into cultural accessibility, and religious association. His dance is interpreted in Yoruba culture as approachability. He combined it with Imole free medical outreaches, free school materials, digital skills for youth and direct support to market women. While APC emphasised federal might, Adeleke maintained presence in Ede, Iwo, Ikirun and Osogbo.

Third, open-door and defection absorption. By absorbing PDP structures, market associations, transport unions and former APC ward leaders into Accord, he consolidated grassroots networks.

In essence, APC approached Osun with federal logic, while Adeleke approached it with street logic. In a state with a large informal workforce and civil service, street logic proved decisive.

Lessons from the Sweeping without the Broom

One, incumbency and performance outweigh party logo. Voters retained goodwill based on workers' welfare, infrastructure and digital economy initiatives.

Two, party is a bus, not a home. From Action Group to UPN to AD to ACN to APC, and from SDP to PDP to Accord, platforms have changed while people remain.

Three, do not fight your neighbour for politicians. APC controls the federal government under President Tinubu; Accord controls Osun under Governor Adeleke. Both must still collaborate on federal allocations, security and infrastructure, including inland waterways.

Four, conscience over convenience. Parties will merge, demerge and face deregistration. Communities remain. Voters should assess competence, character and capacity over patisanism.

The people of Osun have spoken. May the second term deepen the five-point agenda of workers' welfare, infrastructure, education, health and youth empowerment for all residents regardless of political affiliation.

Simon Wale Olatunji, Ph.D

Editor in Chief

The Host